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Ecological planetary dangers : effects on tourism

Rolf BÜRKI - Doctor, Geography Institute, Zurich University, Switzerland

 

 

1. What is a climate change ?

Changes in climate and global warming are undoubtedly among the most important problems facing the environment. Changes in climate caused by human intervention must, however, be distinguished from the natural greenhouse effect. Indeed, life would not be possible on the earth if a natural greenhouse effect did not exist. Without it, the average temperature would be -15°C ; but thanks to the greenhouse effect it is about +15°C. This warming is made possible by certain gases in the air, the so-called "greenhouse" gases, which have the same function as panels of glass in a greenhouse: short-wave solar radiation can reach the earth without much hindrance, whereas long-wave thermal radiation is partly reflected back to earth thanks to greenhouse gases.

The climate fluctuations can be attributed to natural causes (for example, a modification in solar brightness) or those of human origin.

The climate change of human origin is mainly due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is responsible for about half of the climate change of human origin. It is released by fossil fuel combustion (such as petrol or coal).

With all the traffic that it entails, tourism is one of the important causes of climate change. The fast growth in air traffic, in particular, will represent a great danger to the climate in the future, because in the first place its consumption of energy per kilometre per person is very high and, second, its emissions (including vapour trails) have a greater effect because they take place at high altitude (SAUSEN 1999).

If one examines the evolution of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, there was a slight decrease during the present millennium until the end of the 19th century and a strong warming, of about 0.5 to 1°C, since the beginning of the 20th century. Today, the majority of climatologists are convinced that one can already speak of a human influence on the climate (IPCC 1995). During the next decades, the climate change of human origin will cause an additional warming of about 1 to 3°C. This rise in temperature will provoke a rise in sea level of the order of some tens of metres.

2. What are the effects of climate change on tourism ?

The following discussion is restricted to the example of the warming in the case of winter tourism. The change of climate, because of the rise in sea level, will of course entail heavy consequences for coastal tourism, notably in island countries with a flat relief (for example, the Maldives).

Modern winter sports would not be conceivable without cable cars ; inversely, the existence of most cable cars would be threatened without winter sports and, hence, without snow. The insurance of sufficient snow is therefore an essential element of tourism in the Alps.

A survey carried out through questioning alpine tourists revealed that snow cover was at the top of the first ten necessities (Swiss tourism in numbers, 1999).

For operators, good snow conditions do not guarantee a good season.

Besides the presence of sufficient quantities of snow at the right time, particularly during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, the meteorological conditions (particularly at the weekend) and weather forecasts also play an important role. A good snow cover is a necessary condition but not sufficient to ensure the economic success of a ski resort. However, if there is not enough snow, a profitable ski business is hardly possible. Winters at the end of the 1980s, when snowfalls were too light, clearly demonstrated this connection for resorts at low and middle altitudes.

The 100-day rule has been adopted for the definition of ensured snow cover. The snow cover of a ski area is considered to be sufficient if, during the period from 1 December to 15 April there are at least 100 days where the snow cover is at least 30 cm deep, sufficient for the practice of winter sports. The altitude at which snow cover is sufficient is about 1200 metres above sea level. In the hypothesis of an average warming of 2°C, this limit will be increased by 300 m, i.e. to 1500 m.

Such a situation could occur around 2030 - 2060 (ABEGG 1996).

An investigation has been carried out on the present and future likelihood of snow cover in all 230 ski areas and 122 individual exploitations in Switzerland. Currently, 85 % of resorts and 40 % of the individual exploitations, at distinctly lower altitudes, can be considered as safe. If, due to the climate change, the sufficient level of snow cover were 300m higher, 63% of resorts and 9% of the individual exploitations would be considered safe. Regions particularly threatened are the Jura, central and east Switzerland, the Tessin and the Alps in the areas of Vaud and Fribourg. Ski areas in the cantons of Valais and of Grisons will not have any real problems.

The change in climate will bring a new distribution of popular or unpopular zones for the practice of winter sports. If all factors except the climate remain unaltered, ski tourism will be concentrated at higher altitudes, where future snow cover is guaranteed. Ski areas at lower altitudes will eventually leave the market because of lack of snow. The only domains that enjoy really good prospects are those that exploit areas above 2000 m thanks to aerial ascents. It may be that areas at higher altitudes will be the subject of increased demand, to which the reaction will be a growth of development. The mechanisation of winter sports resorts will be reinforced and pressure exercised on ecologically fragile high mountain areas will be greater. The unreliability of the snow cover is the main reason for the current boom in studies of projects and planning for the exploitation of high mountain areas, as in the development of the ski area of the Rosenhorn glacier in the Bernese Oberland. In other words: climate change is an argument for the tourist exploitation of high mountain areas. In 1999, in the whole of the Alps, 60 new ski area developments (not all at high altitudes) were planned or under discussion.

3. How will the tourist demand evolve ?

Skiers will react to this change in climate. During the 1996/1997 winter, a representative poll of 1000 skiers (including snowboarders and crosscountry skiers) was carried out in five ski areas in central Switzerland.

They answered a questionnaire on the subject of climate change and tourism, with 96.3 % reply rate (BÜRKI 1998). It concerned ski areas at different altitudes and whose snow cover was therefore variable. 83 % of skiers think that the climate change will affect ski tourism. The younger the skiers, the more they believe that there will be repercussions. Nearly half (48 %) expect effects to be felt between the years 2000 and 2030. It means that tourists do not perceive the climate change as something very abstract, whose effects will only appear in the distant future, but they expect these effects to occur fairly soon.

The investigation indicates that skiers will modify their tourist behaviour in the case of climate change. Resorts where the poll was made would see the number of their customers drop considerably, even though few people would actually stop skiing (4 %), because a good part of the clientele would go to heavily snow-covered zones (49 %) and would ski less often (32 %). Differences appear in the make-up of the clientele: older people will remain faithful to the same site but will ski less often ; day visitors and occasional skiers of average competence will move toward zones with a strong guarantee of snow cover, but they will ski there more frequently. Ski areas where snow cover is less guaranteed must expect a return to the young and day visitors and those who are learning to ski.

The economic cost of a climate change and the consequences mentioned above would be considerable. MEIER (1998) estimates the potential impact of a climate change on tourism in Switzerland at 1.8 to 2.3 thousand million Swiss francs per year, i.e. about 0.5 % of the GDP of Switzerland.

4. How does the tourist industry react to the change in climate ?

Faced with the consequences of the climate change, those responsible for tourism on a political, economic, commercial and organisational level are already reacting to this expected evolution. The experience of winters with little snow taught them that if the climate is not a determining factor for their economic activities, it does nevertheless represent an important resource and requirement.

Studies carried out on targeted groups of people responsible for tourism can be summarised in the following way :

- The climate change is a recognised problem for winter tourism. Those working in tourism know that their appeal depends strongly on the quantity of snow and that winters with little snow have dire consequences. They know the possible long-term effects of climate change on winter tourism. Even though it is essential to guarantee the snow cover of their ski areas, a possible climate change has for them only relatively little importance.

- They do not consider the climate change a disaster for winter tourism.

According to them, the media, but also scientists and politicians, give this subject an extensively exaggerated importance. The climate change would certainly reinforce problems that resorts at lower altitude have already and would accelerate the structural change of the industry, but the majority of ski areas at middle and high altitude would hardly be affected.

- The climate change already influences strategies and projects of ski resorts. Discussions that have taken place in interest groups revealed the ambivalent attitude of tourism with regard to the climate change.

On the one hand, those involved in tourism are very distrustful of information concerning the climate change and they minimise the consequences that it could have. On the other hand, they use this climate change to legitimise forward strategies. Indeed, the climate change, global warming and international competition have for some time provided a central argument for constructing and using artificial snow facilities (including the use of chemical additives) and for enlarging or developing new ski areas at high altitude (over 3000 m).

- Persons responsible for tourism agree that a winter sports resort in the Alps can only survive if "adequate snow cover" is guaranteed. The small resorts at low altitude either cannot undertake anything for topographic reasons or cannot finance the necessary investments (for example, snow cover, levelling, exploitation of higher ski areas). They lack their own means and banks are unwilling to grant credit to areas at altitudes below 1500 m that are likely to show little profit.

- Those working in tourism believe that small ski areas on the edge of the Alps play an important role for skiing. Their opinions are, however, divided when the question arises as to whether it is necessary to preserve such resorts, often hardly profitable, and how their financing can be guaranteed. Whereas some plead for removing non-profitable cable cars and drag lifts and consider a certain necessary contraction of the industry to be healthy, others think that it is their duty to keep these resorts to preserve the regional economy. This last opinion increases the pressure in favour of a public subsidy of mechanical lifts (by districts, cantons, and government).

However, the resulting situation for tourism will not alter suddenly. The climate change must rather be considered like a catalyst that reinforces and accelerates the structural change of tourism, that only makes prospects and risks of tourist development appear more clearly. The formation of a "two-class society", with on the one hand the flourishing sites and on the other the economically weak ski resorts at lower altitude, does not only result from climate change but also from the general structural change.

Ski resorts have available a selection of possible strategies to help them adjust to the threat of climate change. These strategies can be divided into three main categories: "safeguarding the practice of skiing", "diversification in winter tourism" and "all season tourism".

A fatalistic attitude with regard to climate change and its effects cannot be accepted as an efficient strategy. It could also be described by the expression "business as usual". The "fatalistic" attitude also consists of dismantling transport facilities serving winter sports without trying to promote or to reinforce other forms of tourism, i.e. not actively to plan abandoning ski tourism. This fatalistic attitude is most often held by operators of small individual facilities, at low altitude, who have serious financial difficulties resulting from past winters with little snow.

5. Conclusion

• Tourism is very dependent on weather and climate. A winter with little snow is one of the risks of the business. Climate change, while resulting in an increase in winters with little snow cover, will have wide-reaching consequences on tourism in the Alps.
• Climate change will accelerate the structural change of tourism, which has already started; the two-class society will be more marked. Some destinations must expect to abandon skiing activities.
• Climate change is a slow process, which allows time for transition. This adaptation must, however, be achieved in a consistent way.
• The general objective of adaptation strategies should be the reduction of dependence on snow cover.
• Tourism is a factor of climate change that is not negligible, but on the other hand, some forms of tourism such as winter sports or seaside tourism will be strongly affected by a climate change.
• Faced by the danger of climate change, tourism should actively support the protection of the climate, not only in the sense of sustainable development, but also in its own interests.

 

Bibliography

Abegg Bruno : Klimaänderung und Tourismus - Klimafolgenforschung am Beispiel des Wintertourismus in den Schweizer Alpen. Final report NFP 31. vdf Zürich, 1996

Bürki Rolf : Klimaänderung und Skitourismus - Wie wirkt sich eine Klimaänderung auf die skitouristische Nachfrage aus ? In : Geographica Helvetica no. 4, 1998, pp. 155-161

IPCC : The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge, 1995

König Urs : Tourism in a Warmer World - Implications of Climate Change due to Enhanced Greenhouse Effect for the Ski Industry in the Australian Alps. Wirtschaftsgeographie und Raumplanung Vol. 28 Geographisches Institut Universität Zürich, 1998

Lohmann Martin et al. : Küstentourismus in Deutschland - Nachfragestruktur und die Anfälligkeit auf Klimaänderungen. In : Tourismus Journal, 1, vol. 2, pp. 67-79

Meier Ruedi : Sozioökonomische Aspekte von Klimaänderungen und Naturkatastrophen in der Schweiz. Schlussbericht NFP 31. Vdf Zürich 1998

Sausen Robert : Auswirkungen des Luftverkehrs auf das Klima. In : Gographische Rundschau 9, 1999, pp. 483-487 Schweizer Tourismus in Zahlen 1999, Bern